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New Hurricane Forecast Calls For 33 Named Storms This Season

In their highest hurricane forecast ever, scientists from the University of Pennsylvania are calling for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33. Statistically, Florida would likely be in the crosshairs of at least 1. In 2023, we had 20 named storms in the Atlantic Hurricane Season when their best guess was 15. This is quite a bit more. 33 would also smash the record of 30 in 2020 which mostly spared Southwest Florida.  28 named storms happened back in 2005. 7 of those 28 storms made landfall, Arlene, Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Tammy and Wilma. Those of us living in Florida at the time remember that season quite well. So where do they get the estimate of 33 for the 2024 season? University of Pennsylvania EES scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar using a statistical model including a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events. I'm not entirely sure what that all means, either. But it's science. 3 main assumptions lead to this estimate. the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.9°C in April 2024 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2024 hurricane season. development of a moderate La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific in late Boreal summer and fall 2024. climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2023-2024. Warmer water, warmer air, and the dreaded La Niña. [caption id="attachment_349293" align="alignnone" width="1024"] Hurricane Ian Slams Into West Coast Of Florida (NASA)[/caption] Hurricane Forecast So how good is the University of Pennsylvania at this? With a range between 27 and 39 storms called for this year let's compare their previous record over the past 10 years. 5 of the years, the number of named storms fell within their range. The other 5, there were more storms than they expected. That's not good. That would mean at least 27 named storms and possibly more than 40. Depending on how 'right' they are. No Need To Panic. As mentioned earlier, there were 30 named storms in 2020. Florida was barely touched that year. So yes, like their hurricane forecast shows, it is very likely we're going to have a lot of named storms this year. But where they'll go is anybody's guess. We'll be updating our Hurricane Guide for Southwest Florida soon. [select-gallery gallery_id="422513" syndication_name="heartbreaking-photos-of-matlacha-17-months-after-hurricane-ian" description="yes"]

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